Projected employment tax return filings by filing method and jurisdiction
Every year, the IRS updates Publication 6149 with multi-year, state-level forecasts of returns expected to be filed by form type and filing medium. This report focuses exclusively on Forms 940 and 941.
For 2027, the IRS projects 34,275,600 Forms 940 and 941 in total. Of those, 8,158,100 are projected to be filed on paper, representing 23.8% of projected filings.
The four states with the largest projected paper-filing volumes are California, Texas, Florida and New York. Together they represent 2,531,200 projected paper filings, or 31.0% of the national projected paper total.
Electronic filing avoids mail-delivery risk and provides electronic acknowledgement of the submission. Processing times and error rates can vary by form, filing conditions and IRS operations, so those measures are intentionally kept separate from the annual Publication 6149 projection data.
| Jurisdiction | Paper 940 | e-File 940 | Paper 941 | e-File 941 | Total | Paper % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 22,600 | 46,200 | 98,200 | 199,500 | 366,500 | 33.0% |
| Alaska | 6,200 | 9,300 | 25,200 | 41,200 | 81,900 | 38.3% |
| Arizona | 27,000 | 103,700 | 103,200 | 426,600 | 660,500 | 19.7% |
| Arkansas | 18,600 | 27,700 | 78,600 | 119,700 | 244,600 | 39.7% |
| California | 182,300 | 734,800 | 646,300 | 3,007,400 | 4,570,800 | 18.1% |
| Colorado | 38,600 | 105,600 | 148,600 | 444,500 | 737,300 | 25.4% |
| Connecticut | 12,600 | 58,300 | 47,200 | 248,200 | 366,300 | 16.3% |
| Delaware | 7,400 | 17,300 | 22,600 | 83,400 | 130,700 | 23.0% |
| District of Columbia | 2,000 | 12,800 | 6,900 | 62,500 | 84,200 | 10.6% |
| Florida | 123,300 | 441,100 | 465,700 | 1,799,100 | 2,829,200 | 20.8% |
| Georgia | 47,400 | 159,800 | 187,600 | 666,000 | 1,060,800 | 22.2% |
| Hawaii | 7,400 | 16,700 | 28,800 | 70,300 | 123,200 | 29.4% |
| Idaho | 16,000 | 31,700 | 62,000 | 130,700 | 240,400 | 32.4% |
| Illinois | 65,700 | 191,000 | 266,300 | 806,900 | 1,329,900 | 25.0% |
| Indiana | 27,600 | 79,700 | 115,900 | 341,800 | 565,000 | 25.4% |
| Iowa | 21,500 | 34,000 | 90,900 | 144,500 | 290,900 | 38.6% |
| Kansas | 16,900 | 37,600 | 72,400 | 159,600 | 286,500 | 31.2% |
| Kentucky | 23,300 | 36,900 | 98,600 | 161,600 | 320,400 | 38.0% |
| Louisiana | 25,600 | 50,600 | 106,700 | 217,200 | 400,100 | 33.1% |
| Maine | 6,400 | 28,400 | 26,800 | 120,300 | 181,900 | 18.3% |
| Maryland | 23,700 | 89,000 | 88,600 | 378,500 | 579,800 | 19.4% |
| Massachusetts | 21,700 | 133,800 | 78,400 | 571,000 | 804,900 | 12.4% |
| Michigan | 51,600 | 121,400 | 205,200 | 528,300 | 906,500 | 28.3% |
| Minnesota | 30,100 | 89,000 | 124,000 | 377,400 | 620,500 | 24.8% |
| Mississippi | 16,400 | 20,000 | 72,300 | 86,700 | 195,400 | 45.4% |
| Missouri | 44,200 | 85,000 | 168,100 | 382,000 | 679,300 | 31.3% |
| Montana | 12,500 | 21,000 | 50,100 | 89,200 | 172,800 | 36.2% |
| Nebraska | 15,200 | 25,600 | 63,300 | 109,000 | 213,100 | 36.8% |
| Nevada | 13,600 | 48,700 | 51,000 | 199,900 | 313,200 | 20.6% |
| New Hampshire | 6,300 | 23,500 | 25,700 | 98,800 | 154,300 | 20.7% |
| New Jersey | 37,300 | 177,600 | 135,700 | 731,900 | 1,082,500 | 16.0% |
| New Mexico | 11,000 | 19,000 | 45,700 | 82,600 | 158,300 | 35.8% |
| New York | 106,700 | 368,900 | 392,600 | 1,536,600 | 2,404,800 | 20.8% |
| North Carolina | 49,200 | 143,100 | 199,700 | 603,800 | 995,800 | 25.0% |
| North Dakota | 7,400 | 10,000 | 31,200 | 42,100 | 90,700 | 42.6% |
| Ohio | 44,400 | 136,300 | 183,300 | 584,000 | 948,000 | 24.0% |
| Oklahoma | 23,200 | 43,900 | 101,700 | 186,700 | 355,500 | 35.1% |
| Oregon | 24,200 | 75,800 | 89,900 | 315,100 | 505,000 | 22.6% |
| Pennsylvania | 58,300 | 168,000 | 235,400 | 723,100 | 1,184,800 | 24.8% |
| Rhode Island | 3,500 | 21,600 | 13,400 | 90,000 | 128,500 | 13.2% |
| South Carolina | 22,400 | 66,000 | 91,800 | 283,700 | 463,900 | 24.6% |
| South Dakota | 9,100 | 11,200 | 38,600 | 46,900 | 105,800 | 45.1% |
| Tennessee | 26,800 | 74,600 | 112,800 | 319,900 | 534,100 | 26.1% |
| Utah | 20,300 | 64,300 | 77,600 | 260,300 | 422,500 | 23.2% |
| Texas | 122,700 | 401,500 | 491,600 | 1,662,500 | 2,678,300 | 22.9% |
| Vermont | 4,200 | 11,700 | 18,000 | 52,200 | 86,100 | 25.8% |
| Virginia | 37,700 | 121,700 | 149,100 | 514,700 | 823,200 | 22.7% |
| Washington | 49,300 | 110,000 | 190,300 | 460,900 | 810,500 | 29.6% |
| West Virginia | 9,300 | 9,900 | 42,100 | 45,900 | 107,200 | 47.9% |
| Wisconsin | 28,900 | 77,700 | 119,800 | 327,400 | 553,800 | 26.9% |
| Wyoming | 6,900 | 11,600 | 28,300 | 49,700 | 96,500 | 36.5% |
| International | 19,200 | 22,800 | 88,600 | 98,300 | 228,900 | 47.1% |
| Total | 1,655,700 | 5,027,400 | 6,502,400 | 21,090,100 | 34,275,600 | 23.8% |